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reebok 3 reasons to wait for a stock market dip this summer
Posted by: skiu4q9i9b (IP Logged)
Date: September 02, 2014 11:34PM

3 reasons to wait for a stock market dip this summer,[url=$%&/]reebok[/url]
GDP growth is expected to be greater than 3% this summer,[url=]louboutin @#$%&[/url], which would mark the end of a run of mid year soft patches and potentially open the door for a longer period of growth in the 3% range. treasury yield can stay under 3.25% this summer against the backdrop of stronger growth,[url=$%&/]polo outlet[/url], Deutsche Bank strategist David Bianco said it is unlikely that the yield will exceed 4% through 2015.
In addition to forecasting this gain of roughly 8%,[url=]@#$%& tn[/url], Mr. Bianco outlined three reasons to wait for a dip in equity markets while watching yields this summer.
The S 500 trailing P/E of 17 is approximately 5% higher than its average since 1960,[url=]football jerseys[/url], while long term EPS growth is expected to be in line with history.
low PE mega caps are still attractive,[url=$%&/]uggs on sale[/url], the strategist said,[url=http://www.katespadeoutleta@#$%&/]katespade[/url], noting the median P/E of 18 is also about 10% higher than its historical average is dependent on low interest rates persisting through the cycle. rate volatility may rise
Since 1966,[url=]longchamp @#$%&[/url], the 10 year yield has risen by 50 basis points or more in three months at least once every year. Mr. Bianco also noted the 10 year jumped 100 basis points during the tizzy in 2013.
rate volatility is likely to be higher this summer if the acceleration changes Fed guidance or investor expectations on the trajectory of the Fed Funds rate,[url=]@#$%&[/url], he said.
The summer lull is worse in mid term election years
Excluding recession years,[url=]oakley[/url], the S 500 gains an average of 3.9% from January to April.,[url=http://www.pradahandbagsshoes@#$%&/]prada[/url], 0.9% from May to September,[url=]rayban[/url], and 4.4% from October to December.
During mid term election years,[url=]discount true religion[/url], May to September is usually weaker,[url=]celine handbags[/url], averaging a decline of 6.4%,[url=http://www.mac--cosmetics@#$%&/]m a c cosmetics[/url], and October to December is stronger with an average gain of 6.7%.

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